Projecting Tanzania pension fund system
Article published by Statistics and Probability African Society in the African Journal of Applied Statistics 4(1): 193-218 (January 2017)
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Statistics and Probability African Society
2024
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| Online Access: | https://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/618 |
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| author | John, Andongwisye Torbjörn, Larsson Singull, Martin Mushi, Allen R. |
| author_facet | John, Andongwisye Torbjörn, Larsson Singull, Martin Mushi, Allen R. |
| author_sort | John, Andongwisye |
| collection | DSpace |
| description | Article published by Statistics and Probability African Society in the African Journal of Applied Statistics 4(1): 193-218 (January 2017) |
| format | Article |
| id | oai:41.59.85.69:123456789-618 |
| institution | Mzumbe University |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Statistics and Probability African Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | oai:41.59.85.69:123456789-6182024-04-16T05:56:48Z Projecting Tanzania pension fund system John, Andongwisye Torbjörn, Larsson Singull, Martin Mushi, Allen R. defined benefit demography pay-as-you-go pension fund Article published by Statistics and Probability African Society in the African Journal of Applied Statistics 4(1): 193-218 (January 2017) A mandatory Tanzania pension fund with a final salary defined benefit is analyzed. This fund is a contributory pay-as-you-go defined benefit pension system which is much affected by the change in demography. Two kinds of pension benefit, a commuted (at retirement) and a monthly (old age) pension are considered. A decisive factor in the analysis is the increased life expectancy of members of the fund. The projection of the fund's future members and retirees is done using expected mortality rates of working population and expected longevity. The future contributions, benefits, asset values and liabilities are analyzed. The projection shows that the fund will not be fully sustainable on a long term due to the increase in life expectancy of its members. The contributions will not cover the benefit payouts and the asset value will not fully cover liabilities. Evaluation of some possible reforms of the fund shows that they cannot guarantee a long-term sustainability. Higher returns on asset value will improve the funding ratio, but contributions are still insufficient to cover benefit payouts. Un fonds de pension obligataire en Tanzanie avec un salaire final défini est défini. Ce fonds est un système de retraite à prestations déterminées contributif et payant qui est très affecté par les changements démographiques. Deux types de prestations de retraite, une retraite de rachat (à la retraite) et une pension mensuelle (vieillesse) sont considérés. Un facteur décisif dans l'analyse est l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie des participants au fonds. La projection des futurs membres et des retraités du fonds se fait à l'aide des taux de mortalité attendus de la population active et de la longévité espérée. Les contributions futures, les avantages, la valeur de l'actif et du passif sont analysés. Nos projections montrent que le fonds ne sera pas pleinement durable à long terme, en raison de l'augmentation de l'espérance de vie de membres. Les contributions ne couvriront pas les paiements de prestations et la valeur de l'actif ne couvrira pas entièrement le passif. Une évaluation de certaines réformes possibles du fonds montre qu'ils ne peuvent garantir une viabilité à long terme. Un rendement plus élevé de la valeur de l'actif améliorera le ratio de financement, mais les contributions restent insuffisantes pour couvrir les paiements des prestations. Private 2024-04-16T05:56:45Z 2024-04-16T05:56:45Z 2017 Article APA DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2017.193.210. https://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/618 en application/pdf Statistics and Probability African Society |
| spellingShingle | defined benefit demography pay-as-you-go pension fund John, Andongwisye Torbjörn, Larsson Singull, Martin Mushi, Allen R. Projecting Tanzania pension fund system |
| title | Projecting Tanzania pension fund system |
| title_full | Projecting Tanzania pension fund system |
| title_fullStr | Projecting Tanzania pension fund system |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting Tanzania pension fund system |
| title_short | Projecting Tanzania pension fund system |
| title_sort | projecting tanzania pension fund system |
| topic | defined benefit demography pay-as-you-go pension fund |
| url | https://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/618 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT johnandongwisye projectingtanzaniapensionfundsystem AT torbjornlarsson projectingtanzaniapensionfundsystem AT singullmartin projectingtanzaniapensionfundsystem AT mushiallenr projectingtanzaniapensionfundsystem |