Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025
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Cogent Economics & Finance
2024
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2376947 https://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/1013 |
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| author | Utouh , Harold M. L. Kitole, Felician Andrew |
| author_facet | Utouh , Harold M. L. Kitole, Felician Andrew |
| author_sort | Utouh , Harold M. L. |
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| format | Article |
| id | oai:41.59.85.69:123456789-1013 |
| institution | Mzumbe University |
| language | en_US |
| publishDate | 2024 |
| publisher | Cogent Economics & Finance |
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| spelling | oai:41.59.85.69:123456789-10132024-08-07T07:17:55Z Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 Utouh , Harold M. L. Kitole, Felician Andrew foreign direct investment Tanzania Development Vision 2025 green growth industrialization VAR VECM Tanzania Globalization Solow-Swan Growth Model Cobb-Douglas production function Stationarity tests (unit root test) Cointegration test Vector error correction model (VECM) foreign direct investment (FDI) and industrialization - Tanzania Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Nil Purpose: This paper aims to deepen understanding and knowledge regarding the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the industrialization process. Many developing countries aspire to shift from agriculture-centric economies to achieve sustainable development through industrialization. Realizing this goal, however, has been challenging, prompting an examination of the sixty-year trends and effects of FDI on Tanzania’s industrialization trajectory. Methodology: This study employs a comprehensive approach utilizing time series models, specifically the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Error Correction Model (ECM), to analyze the dynamic influence of FDI on industrialization. By forecasting the five-year trajectory of industrial growth and FDI inflows using data from the Bank of Tanzania and the National Bureau of Statistics spanning 1960 to 2020, this methodological framework aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the FDIindustrialization relationship, contributing valuable insights to the economic development discourse. Findings: The study’s results highlight the significant role of FDI in shaping both short- and long-term industrial progress, which is critical to advancing Tanzania’s industrialization goals. Conversely, factors like exchange rates predominantly impact the short-term industrial landscape. Forecasts from the analysis indicate a projected decline in both FDI and industrialization from 2020 to 2022, followed by a notable upturn from 2022 to 2025. This underscores FDI as a key driver for integrating agriculture-based economies into global value chains, facilitating economic upgrading through capital accumulation—a fundamental catalyst for sustained industrialization. Private 2024-08-07T07:17:52Z 2024-08-07T07:17:52Z 2024 Article APA 10.1080/23322039.2024.2376947 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2376947 https://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/1013 en_US application/pdf Cogent Economics & Finance |
| spellingShingle | foreign direct investment Tanzania Development Vision 2025 green growth industrialization VAR VECM Tanzania Globalization Solow-Swan Growth Model Cobb-Douglas production function Stationarity tests (unit root test) Cointegration test Vector error correction model (VECM) foreign direct investment (FDI) and industrialization - Tanzania Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Utouh , Harold M. L. Kitole, Felician Andrew Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 |
| title | Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 |
| title_full | Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 |
| title_short | Forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the Tanzania development vision 2025 |
| title_sort | forecasting effects of foreign direct investment on industrialization towards realization of the tanzania development vision 2025 |
| topic | foreign direct investment Tanzania Development Vision 2025 green growth industrialization VAR VECM Tanzania Globalization Solow-Swan Growth Model Cobb-Douglas production function Stationarity tests (unit root test) Cointegration test Vector error correction model (VECM) foreign direct investment (FDI) and industrialization - Tanzania Vector Autoregressive (VAR) |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2376947 https://scholar.mzumbe.ac.tz/handle/123456789/1013 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT utouhharoldml forecastingeffectsofforeigndirectinvestmentonindustrializationtowardsrealizationofthetanzaniadevelopmentvision2025 AT kitolefelicianandrew forecastingeffectsofforeigndirectinvestmentonindustrializationtowardsrealizationofthetanzaniadevelopmentvision2025 |